Current and future enrollment is a critical factor in space planning for Wayland High School. Enrollment is regularly monitored by the Wayland Public Schools. When selected by the Massachusetts School Building Authority (MSBA) to move forward with a school project, Wayland will work with the state and their defined process to develop enrollment projections for WHS.
Current Enrollment
Each year, on the first school day of October, the total number of students enrolled in Wayland schools is recorded as part of the Massachusetts Department of Education’s annual census of children attending the Commonwealth’s public schools. On October 1, 2007, total enrollment in Wayland High School was 903 students, 16 fewer than were enrolled on October 1, 2006. This year marks the first decline in High School enrollment since 1993. The largest drop in enrollment was seen in Grade 12, with the year’s graduating class having 9 fewer students than last year’s seniors.
Projecting Enrollment
School enrollment is driven by national, regional, and state trends as well as a number of local factors. These local factors include changes in town population, births within that population, the nature of housing turnover within the town, new construction within the town, and the funding decisions that the town chooses to make with respect to school and municipal services. While it is possible to learn from past trends, they do not necessarily reflect how events will unfold in the future.
Three methodologies for projecting school enrollment include 1) Cohort Survival Ratio method, 2) Five-Year Numerical Average and 3) NESDEC approach.
1) Wayland Public Schools uses a three-year Cohort Survival Ratio (CSR) to develop internal enrollment projections. The CSR is the fraction of children moving from one grade to the next. This method has been employed for many years by the school administration to make enrollment projections and takes into account housing growth, migration, retention, withdrawals, transfers and births over the three previous school years. It produces highly reliable projections for enrollment in Grades 1-12; however, it is less accurate in predicting kindergarten enrollments which may be affected by postponed kindergarten enrollment, attendance at private full-day kindergarten programs in the area, adoption rates and housing turnover.
2) The Five-Year Numerical Average considers the difference between the number of births recorded five years earlier to the number of kindergarteners. It typically yields results very close to that of the CSR Method.
3) NESDEC, the New England School Development Council, is a not-for-profit organization that provides services to school districts in New England. Their approach to projecting enrollment uses the CSR method augmented by other town-specific information.
Using these methods for predicting enrollment, the following chart compares current to projected enrollment at Wayland High School:
2007-2008 2008-2009 Projected Enrollment
Grade Actual CSR % Chg 5-Year Avg % Chg NESDEC % Chg
9 232 213 -8.1% 212 -8.6% 212 -8.6%
10 221 226 +2.1% 227 +2.7% 225 +1.8%
11 222 216 -2.7% 216 -2.7% 222 0%
12 228 222 -2.6% 222 -2.6% 216 -5.3%
Total 903 877 -2.9% 877 -2.9% 875 -3.1%
At present, the trend appears to be more down than up, but a number of volatile factors such as housing, turnover, the Town Center, etc. make this projection far from conclusive.
For more information
Wayland Public Schools Enrollment Report, October 2007
Future of Wayland High School Enrollment, Jeff Dieffenbach, January 2007
