Thursday, May 11, 2006
Wayland Town Building
School Committee Conference Room
Attendees
HSBC members: Lea Anderson, Josh Bekenstein, Dianne Bladon, Jim Howard, Joe Lewin, Eric Sheffels
Absent: Steve Breit, Brian Chase, Mary Lentz, Cindy Lombardo, Steve Tise
Ex Officio members: Gary Burton, Bob Gordon, Fred Knight, Charlie Ruopp
Call to order – HSBC Chairman, Lea Anderson, called the meeting to order at 7:50 p.m.
- What is meant by ŇitemÓ prioritization?
- HSBC could make the determination that the relative value of correcting one item does not warrant the cost.
- HSBC will make a recommendation to the WSC. The WSC determines what to put before voters.
- Administration should make value judgments.
- The committee grappled with three things: how many kids, athletics, and arts.
- WSC should set an enrollment figure.
- Charge purposely leaves enrollment number out so that analysis is ongoing. It might be years before this project gets going.
- We should ask the State about approving a multi-stage project.
- The schedule in the charge is uncertain due to dependence on the MSBA.
Lea reported that Matt Donovan of MSBA sent an e-mail message today in response to questions. He said that the draft regulations will most likely be released in sections over the first few weeks of June. A tentative hearing date of June 9 has been set to discuss space standards at Gardner Auditorium. There will be four more hearings throughout June. The regulations, after the hearings and input from the public, will be molded into a final version that will be sent to the legislature by July 1.
Matt also reiterated that the needs survey is only step 1 in the process. He said to continue keeping the lines of communication open.
School Committee Vice-Chairman, Bob Gordon, reported that the four new members of the HSBC will be solicited by the appointing committee (two members from the School Committee, two members from the Board of Selectmen, and two members from the Finance Committee) over the next month. The process will be open. Every candidate will be interviewed.
Enrollment – Fred Knight presented an analysis prepared by Jeff Dieffenbach, Chairman of the School Committee. He reviewed the enrollment history of the current WHS facility opening in 1960 with 800 students. The enrollment grew to nearly 1300 students in 1970 when students were taking classes in every conceivable space, including local churches. The enrollment dropped to 600 in 1990. The current enrollment is 912. Predicting where enrollment will go in the next 20 years is uncertain. Drivers of enrollment include demographic trends at the national and state levels while town population and births, housing turnover and new construction, and funding of services are local drivers. The current town-wide enrollment is about 3,000 students. The 2002 Feasibility Study analyst, Lani Ravin, projected a potential for 4,000 students if all buildable areas of Wayland are developed. A recent MAPC (Metropolitan Area Planning Council) projection shows 2,000 students in the year 2020 based on the aging population. The number is somewhere in between.
Predicting the next yearŐs enrollment for grades 1-12 using Ňcohort survivalÓ has been pretty accurate. The more difficult projection is kindergarten enrollment. Fred showed that Wayland birth history and kindergarten to birth ratio history have jumped around quite a bit. Predictions for these numbers vary greatly depending on how far back we go to predict future trends. Three cases (5-year backward looking averages for births and kindergarten to birth ratios, 10 and 15-year averages, and 20-year averages) predict high school enrollment in a range of outcomes so broad as to not be useful – from 0 to over 1100 by 2025.
Next yearŐs kindergarten projection was 159 in October and is now more likely to be 180 to 190. Maybe the recent trend of declining enrollment is not as strong as we thought.
The conclusion: trend appears to be more down than up, but there are too many volatile factors to be sure.
Comments included:
- HSBC should address next 20 years. Beyond that, it is too difficult to foresee.
- Perhaps lowering enrollment to 950 at 85% utilization makes sense.
- Build flexibility for future growth.
- The last plan included space for TEC and WayCam. Now have to look at smallest space that meets needs.
Statement of Interest – Lea asked the group for input on enrollment figures to use in the Statement of Interest. She pointed out the MSBA is looking for enrollment projections through 2016, not a plan on how large to build a project. She proposed using NESDEC (New England School Development Council) projections as a credible, objective look. NESDEC is bidding to do the statewide enrollment work for MSBA. The NESDEC analysis considers a 3-year cohort survival along new growth based on building permits. The numbers do not include Judith BarrettŐs numbers for the Town Center. She projects high school net enrollment growth (new students) at 7.47. The NESDEC numbers grow to 2010 at 929 and decline slowly to 823 students in 2016.
Lea, Fred, and Dianne will work on finishing the Statement of Interest. After discussion about waiting until new members are on board before submitting the SOI, it was decided to proceed with this first submission to MSBA. There will be many opportunities to update over the next year. Katherine Craven has recommended that we submit the SOI soon. It was pointed out that the SOI will be submitted by the School Committee and Board of Selectmen, not the HSBC.
Odds and ends – The group was shown a piece of concrete that fell off the overhang of the commons recently. Dr. Burton said that this is the type of problem that the recent appropriation at Town Meeting will address.
Motion – A motion was made by Josh Bekenstein and seconded by Jim Howard to approve the minutes of HSBC meeting #37 held on Thursday, March 23, 2006.
Vote – The motion was approved unanimously (6 in favor, 0 opposed).
Observers: Sam DiSavino
Comments and questions from observers: There were no comments.
Adjournment – The HSBC adjourned at 9:20 p.m.